Thursday, April 8, 2010

EnerNOC, Inc, still room to drop

EnerNOC, Inc(ENOC) has been one of my best short positions this year gaining over 20% and while initially I was just short looking to go long at lower prices I have changed my mind for a couple of reasons.

First and foremost they trade at 92 times this years earnings and even if you use next year's earnings numbers they still trade at a rich valuation of 30 times earnings. The company is in a strong market they provide energy monitoring solutions for their customers to help reduce consumption costs. However, they are only expected to average earnings growth of 28.5% over the next 5 years, not that spectacular for a company trading at 92 times earnings. Furthermore, institutions and insiders have sold over 1.1 million shares over the last 6 months. Even at 20 dollars a share they would still have a p/e of 64 still a little rich for a company growing at less than 30% over the next 5 years. So I believe there is still a lot of room to fall from here I will look to go long at 18.

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