Wednesday, April 14, 2010

One of these days Alice!

To the moon stocks may be heading. While I was expecting a sell on the news scenario for Intel's earnings the markets soared again with no end in sight. The S&P 500 closed above 1200 for the first time since September 2008 and the Dow Jones remained above 11,000.

With UPS posting and YUM both posting earnings numbers that beat estimates tomorrow could be another good day for the bulls. However, the company that has my attention is Google (GOOG) they report earnings after the bell tomorrow and while the stock has climbed well off its lows in February it still has a ways to go to get back to its 52 week high of 629.51. Analysts expect Google to beat their numbers soundly but how the stock reacts is another story. Last quarter they beat their numbers by a large margin but sold off sharply after announcing they might be leaving the Chinese Market. So I will be paying attention to what Google executives have to say about China, and how the Nexus One phone is doing and of course their ad sales.

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Intel beats numbers but will it be enough?

Intel soundly beat their numbers for the quarter coming in with revenues of $10.3 billion vs the street expectations of $9.8 billion. Earnings also beat estimates coming in at 43 cents a share vs the 38 cents that Wall Street was expecting. Investor's appear to like the news as they have bid Intel's(INTC) shares up 4% in after hours trading. With that being said will there be follow through tomorrow? I am guessing after an initial gap up the markets will head south in line with the way investors sold on the earnings news in the 4th quarter.

Thursday, April 8, 2010

EnerNOC, Inc, still room to drop

EnerNOC, Inc(ENOC) has been one of my best short positions this year gaining over 20% and while initially I was just short looking to go long at lower prices I have changed my mind for a couple of reasons.

First and foremost they trade at 92 times this years earnings and even if you use next year's earnings numbers they still trade at a rich valuation of 30 times earnings. The company is in a strong market they provide energy monitoring solutions for their customers to help reduce consumption costs. However, they are only expected to average earnings growth of 28.5% over the next 5 years, not that spectacular for a company trading at 92 times earnings. Furthermore, institutions and insiders have sold over 1.1 million shares over the last 6 months. Even at 20 dollars a share they would still have a p/e of 64 still a little rich for a company growing at less than 30% over the next 5 years. So I believe there is still a lot of room to fall from here I will look to go long at 18.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Stocks shed some excess

Most headlines will read stocks down due to interest rate concerns. However, it seems to have been mere profit taking at this point. The market has risen so much after March that a lot of stocks are priced to perfection. Case in point take a look at Baidu(BIDU) the stock has had an enormous run trading around 420 in the beginning of March to 617.74 which it closed at today. With current growth estimates at 57% and a P/E of 63 the stock appears to be fully valued at current prices. So what happens if their current quarter misses earnings by 10 million or revenue growth is off by a percent or 2? This could be the reality starting with their next quarter they appear to only being making in roads in China and Japan and  their earnings were only 62 million for last quarter. This is only one of many examples of a little froth in the market. The ride up was fun don't get caught in the slide down.

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Apple Ipad Wi-fi issues

Recent posts on the web have many users complaining of low to no connectivity for the Ipad. Wondering if this is the only issue found yet. I still don't get the need for the Ipad when many net books do the same things better than the Ipad will, think processing speeds. Also what would have been so hard about adding a video camera to the device. No way this is Apple's next big thing, hope they have something else in the works.

Just a follow up now the Ipad has been hacked, you can see video here